Israel Knows How To Handle Rogue Religious Zealots

Security and Defense: To attack or not to attack...?
Yaakov Katz - Oct 02, 2009
The Jerusalem Post

As the talks with Iran opened on Thursday, one of the main questions on all of the participants` minds was what the one key country not at the talks - Israel - would do. Would it accept a deal struck between the United States, Russia, the European Union and Iran allowing the Islamic Republic to advance with a supervised civilian nuclear program, or would it decide to strike?

An attack on Iran`s nuclear facilities is not a simple operation and cannot be compared to the two previous strikes Israel carried out against the Syrian reactor in 2007 and the Iraqi reactor in 1981. In those two cases, the reactors consisted of one main facility, above ground and without advanced air defenses.

The same cannot be said of Iran`s nuclear program. As discovered last week, the second uranium enrichment facility near Qom was dug inside a mountain with two tunnels for access. According to intelligence revelations, the facility contains 3,000 centrifuges - allegedly to enrich uranium to military levels - that would become operational by the middle of next year.

THIS NEW facility could be just the beginning. According to an article in Foreign Policy this week, the Qom facility is likely not the only nuclear installation that Iran has been hiding.

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An analysis of an Israeli attack plan, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington earlier this year, claimed that a strike would focus on four main facilities - the Natanz enrichment facility, the Bushehr light-water nuclear power reactor, the Arak heavy water facility and the conversion plant in Esfahan. According to the report, Israel would likely have to use close to 100 fighter jets, as well as its entire fleet of aerial fuel tankers.

According to the research, the shortest route for Israel would be via the North, while straddling the Syrian-Turkish border and then the Turkish-Iraqi border all the way to Iran. An alternative could be what is called the central route - flying directly over Jordan and Iraq into Iran. Each route has its political and operational risks.

NEEDLESS TO say, Israel is very skeptical of the possibility that the talks in Geneva that began on Thursday will produce a positive outcome. The discovery of the facility near Qom is the third time Iran has been caught red-handed deceiving the world about the extent of its project.

...snip/

Even if the dialogue fails, Israel will still need to wait to give the EU, Russia, the US and China the chance to impose tough sanctions on Iran, particularly in the energy sector and the supply of refined fuel, a measure believed to be capable of having a real effect on the regime. If the talks do fail, though, and the sanctions imposed are not tough, Israel will be left to decide what to do.

Alternatively the talks may succeed, and if the US reaches a deal under which the Islamic Republic is allowed to continue enriching uranium at low levels for energy purposes, Israel`s hands will be tied again.

Our Friends At FDD Have A Plan

Iran Missile Test Shows Need for Gasoline Sanctions
Perhaps Last Peaceful Path to End Nuclear Weapons Program

Washington, DC (May 20, 2009) -- The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) said that Iran's successful test of a medium range missile showed the need for tough sanctions and other steps to stop Iran from importing the gasoline that it needs to fuel its economy and military.

"This latest test-firing of an Iranian missile and the regime's aggressive pursuit of its illegal nuclear program threaten the region as well as American security," said FDD Executive Director Mark Dubowitz. "If talks with Iran are to succeed in ending Iran's nuclear weapons program, the Obama administration will need some real leverage when it sits down with Tehran's master negotiators. Iran's heavy dependence on foreign gasoline may be the last, best chance we have to peacefully change the regime's behavior."

Senators Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Joe Lieberman (ID-CT) today introduced an amendment to the supplemental appropriations bill being considered by the Senate to prohibit companies that sell refined petroleum to Iran from receiving contracts to fill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In the last month, Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and House introduced three bills focused on limiting Iran's ability to import gasoline.

"Iran's need to import 40 percent of its gasoline is its economic Achilles' Heel," said Orde Kittrie, an FDD senior fellow, law professor at Arizona State University, and former U.S. State Department official. "Iran relies on a handful of foreign energy companies, all with significant business interests in the United States, to supply it with the gasoline it needs. If these companies end their business relationships with Iran, Iran's economy will slow dramatically, its military will have to look elsewhere for fuel, and the Iranian people may demand that their government start investing in refineries rather than continue pouring money into its illegal and dangerous nuclear program."

Although Iran is a major producer of crude oil, it must import approximately 40 percent of the gasoline it needs because it lacks adequate refinery capacity at home. Companies supplying gasoline to Iran include Vitol, Trafigura, Reliance Industries Ltd., and Total. Glencore and Shell have also provided periodic shipments.

FDD has provided substantial research and analysis on Iran's dependence on imported gasoline, including identifying points of leverage over the foreign energy companies that supply Iran with the majority of gasoline it imports.

FDD's work includes:
FDD National Post oped on the prospects for using gasoline sales to end Iran's nuclear program is here.
FDD Wall Street Journal oped on the companies supplying Iran with gasoline is here.
Wall Street Journal editorial quoting FDD's Mark Dubowitz on the effectiveness of gasoline sanctions is here.
FDD document outlining the strong, bipartisan support that sanctioning gasoline sales to Iran has received is here.
A summary of Congressional action taken to address Iran's dependence on imported gasoline is here.
For more background on the issue, please visit FDD's Iran Energy Project page here.