Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Daily Caller on VA-08

Is long-time Virginia Democratic Rep. Jim Moran really safe this election cycle?
(I hope not)
Democratic Rep. Jim Moran’s 8th Congressional District is considered the second bluest district in Virginia, and the 19-year incumbent has consistently demolished his GOP challengers, but internal polling conducted by his current GOP opponent’s campaign suggests this year could be different.
Republican candidate Col. Patrick Murray’s most recent internal numbers from the last four days show Moran leading with 32.3 percent compared with Murray’s 29.7 percent. 30.5 percent are shown to be undecided.
The Murray campaign’s internal numbers also suggest Moran has high negatives. A Sept. 22 poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates found Moran’s support at below 50 percent ̶ with only 42 percent of those polled rating him as good or excellent and 41 percent rating him as fair or poor.
“Although he currently leads Patrick Murray on the ballot for U.S. Congress, his favorable rating , job rating and vote share fall short of the thresholds for strong incumbents,” pollster John McLaughlin wrote in a memo to the Murray campaign. “Given voters’ dissatisfaction with Jim Moran’s performance as congressman and the current mood of the electorate, Jim Moran is one Democrat incumbent that could be unseated in November.”
McLaughlin’s memo also suggests that the retired Army colonel, who served tours of duty in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Iraq during his 24 years of service, could defeat Moran if he can improve his name recognition.
But Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, says the campaign’s most recent internal numbers, although reflecting the national tilt toward the GOP, cannot be used to determine the race’s outcome because they do not reflect a true random sample.
“If Murray beat Moran it would be an extraordinary upset ̶ one of the headliners of the night,” Sabato said in an e-mail to The Daily Caller. “The 8th is the second most D district in Virginia (after the majority-black 3rd). Obama won 69 percent there. A party switch is highly unlikely in 2010. That’s my best judgment.”
Moran has amassed many enemies in his two decades in Congress due to his personal conduct and connections.

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